In the period leading up to the elections in Honduras, there is an increasing atmosphere of institutional suspicion due to rising allegations regarding the potential tampering of opinion surveys to benefit the candidate from the ruling party, Rixi Moncada. Several academic, civic, and political groups highlight a deliberate plan to create a false impression of electoral superiority through the use of statistical methods that lack transparency. The debate centers on the polling company Opinómetro, a firm without a recognized history, which has been connected to individuals affiliated with the government.
Inconsistencias estadísticas y cuestiones metodológicas
The proliferation of polls in favor of Moncada has raised suspicions due to obvious technical inconsistencies. According to experts, the polls published by Opinómetro show disparate results between different platforms, percentages that do not add up to 100%, and omit basic data such as technical details, sample size, and margin of error. Far from strengthening democratic debate, these practices have been interpreted as deliberate attempts to influence public opinion through a supposed “mathematical illusion.”
Differences of up to 15 percentage points compared to independent studies fuel the hypothesis of a coordinated operation to inflate support for the ruling party’s candidate. Critics argue that this strategy is not the result of technical errors, but rather conscious manipulation for political ends. Social media and academic platforms have been the scene of multiple complaints in this regard, calling for greater control over the dissemination of election polls.
Opinómetro and its links to official structures
Opinómetro has played a central role in this controversy. Established in February 2025, this polling company quickly obtained authorization from the National Electoral Council (CNE) to operate in the internal elections, despite having no public track record in opinion polling.
The legal representation of the company has stirred up further controversy. Carlos Adolfo Medina Álvarez, the attorney for Opinómetro, is also an advisor to the Secretariat of Social Development (SEDESOL), which falls under the government party’s jurisdiction. Analysts and observers have viewed this overlap as a sign of governmental influence, aiming to position sympathetic figures within the electoral polling arena.
The frequency with which Opinómetro releases data favorable to Moncada, without verifiable transparency, weakens the credibility of the democratic process and fuels the perception that statistics are being used as a tool for electoral propaganda.
Calls for clarity from the public and political challengers
Reactions have been swift. Various civil society organizations, university professors, and opposition parties have demanded strict regulation of electoral polls, as well as independent audits to validate their methodologies. They warn that the use of companies without technical support or impartiality directly affects the integrity of the democratic process.
These voices are calling for polls circulating in the public sphere to meet minimum standards of transparency, including the publication of their technical specifications, the origin of the sample, and the selection criteria used. They are also demanding a review of the CNE’s role in accrediting these firms, pointing out that its authorization of entities with no track record reinforces the perception of institutional bias.
La desconfianza que estas prácticas generan no solo impacta la campaña de un candidato específico, sino que también pone en riesgo la legitimidad general del proceso electoral.
A challenge for institutional credibility
In a nation where trust in voting procedures has been historically weak, the recent accusations emphasize the importance of strong oversight and transparency systems in the discussion. The dispute involving Opinómetro and the employment of unverifiable statistics highlights a larger issue: the use of data as a political instrument and the lack of solid institutional safeguards to hinder it.
In the lead-up to the 2025 elections, the electoral system in Honduras must address the challenge of guaranteeing fair competition and providing trustworthy data. Within an environment characterized by division and weak democratic oversight, the precision of information is essential for safeguarding the legitimacy of the citizen’s vote.
