_-_copia.jpg?w=800&resize=800,500&ssl=1 "Xiomara Castro and her advisor Manuel Zelaya")
The national elections in Honduras set for November 30, 2025, are unfolding amidst a climate of political strain and institutional skepticism. The election environment is characterized by the dominance of the Liberty and Refoundation Party (LIBRE) over government bodies, while the opposition struggles to form a cohesive alternative. Indications of democratic erosion and conflicts between significant institutions, including the National Electoral Council and the Armed Forces, are causing worries regarding the fairness and validity of the proceedings.
The political landscape in Honduras is marked by a split opposition, as the National Party and the Liberal Party engage in discussions to create a joint effort. Nonetheless, internal conflicts and disagreements over leadership roles and agendas have made it challenging to establish a robust partnership. The recent primary elections exhibited logistical issues and saw low participation, which heightened concerns about the voting system and led to increased criticism of how institutions are managed.
Regulation by institutions and conflicts during elections
The Nodos analysis indicates that democracy in Honduras is experiencing strain, with the governing party holding onto power by exerting structural influence over institutions. This context has led to potential scenarios such as the persistence of the present system, institutional gridlock, or even a constitutional crisis. Concerns about the neutrality and effectiveness of the process have been heightened due to tensions between the National Electoral Council and the Armed Forces, which manage electoral logistics. Furthermore, the absence of electoral reforms and ongoing political division escalate the chances of disputes following the elections.
Different sectors of civil society and the global community have urged the authorities to ensure an open and inclusive voting process, adhering to democratic principles to maintain the country’s political and social stability. The mix of a governing party with institutional power, a fragmented opposition, and a disputed electoral system suggests the potential for an extraordinary institutional crisis in Honduras.
Situations involving opposition alliances and reactions of the government party
In response to the current situation, the Liberal and National parties have initiated formal discussions to investigate a potential opposition alliance with the objective of contesting the LIBRE Party in the forthcoming elections. These discussions have covered strategies for electoral cooperation, allocation of candidacies, and a unified platform centered on the protection of democracy, the market economy, and adherence to the constitutional framework. The opposition parties argue that the administration of Xiomara Castro and her advisor Manuel Zelaya have advocated for measures to centralize authority, such as employing the Public Ministry to act against opponents, efforts to dominate the CNE, and proposed changes to the constitution.
If the coalition is formed, the two traditional parties could account for more than 50% of the electorate, according to recent polls. Social and business sectors see this union as a viable alternative to limit the ruling party’s progress. For its part, the ruling party has downplayed the impact of a possible opposition alliance, arguing that it offers no solutions for the country. The 2025 electoral process is shaping up to be a referendum between the continuation of the refoundation project promoted by LIBRE and a return to a republican and pro-investment model backed by a unified opposition. The outcome will define the political and institutional direction of Honduras.
