Cinco meses antes de las elecciones generales el 30 de noviembre, el partido gobernante Libertad y Refundación (LIBRE) se encuentra en una coyuntura crítica, caracterizada por divisiones internas, acusaciones de corrupción y un notable descenso en las intenciones de voto. En un escenario electoral cada vez más incierto, el desgaste acumulado del partido en el poder pone en peligro la continuidad de su mandato.
Breakdown in unity and internal conflicts
The choice of Rixi Moncada to represent the ruling party highlighted internal conflicts that had been growing within LIBRE. The later departure of Congressman Jorge Cálix, who had been with the organization for many years, showed significant differences regarding the party’s political path and leadership approach. Cálix, together with other leaders who departed from the party, criticized authoritarian methods and an excluding culture.
In response, the party leadership called for demonstrations in support of both President Xiomara Castro and Moncada herself. However, these actions failed to reverse the perception of a weakened organization and have been interpreted by various sectors as attempts to retain political control in the midst of an adverse environment.
Embezzlement controversies and transparency inquiries
The crisis worsened with the revelation of alleged irregularities in the Secretariat of Social Development (SEDESOL), where deputies affiliated with the ruling party were accused of diverting funds allocated to social programs. The most emblematic case was that of Congresswoman Isis Cuéllar, whose suspension was announced along with the cancellation of social funds and an unprecedented measure: the collective resignation of the party from legislative immunity.
Although these decisions seem to be quite decisive, opposition parties, particularly the National Party, have labeled them as gestures meant to distract the public. As per their representatives, the measures taken by the ruling party lack real consequences or thorough investigations to impose responsibility.
Private sector discontent and calls to halt institutional deterioration
Criticism has not been limited to the political sphere. Leading voices in the business sector have expressed concern about the country’s direction. In a recent public statement, Eduardo Facussé, former president of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Cortés (CCIC), directly blamed the government for betraying the popular mandate with practices that, according to him, include nepotism, discretionary use of public funds, and lack of transparency in emblematic cases such as SEDESOL, the Koriun scam, and allegations of links to criminal networks.
Facussé cautioned about the deterioration of institutions and urged the public to protect the rule of law against what he viewed as an effort to establish an authoritarian and financially unviable system.
Collapse in the polls and reconfiguration of the electoral map
The most recent opinion polls reflect a rapid decline in LIBRE’s voting intentions. According to data collected between May and June, support for the ruling party has ranged between 11% and 28.5%, well below the 42% recorded in March. This downward trend, coupled with volatility between polls, suggests a fragmented electoral base in search of alternatives.
At the same time, opposition candidates such as Salvador Nasralla and Nasry Asfura have gained ground, reaching levels of support ranging from 25% to 36%. Citizen ratings are also indicative of the government’s erosion: President Xiomara Castro receives an average rating of just 4.1 out of 10, in a context marked by unresolved scandals and a growing perception of inefficiency.
An uncertain outlook for the ruling party
The existing scenario poses a significant challenge for LIBRE. Internal turmoil, institutional decline, eroded trust, and public disapproval have undermined its standing prior to the general elections. Continuing on this path, the ruling party faces the potential of not just forfeiting control of the executive office but also jeopardizing the political initiative that led to its rise in 2021.
En esta situación, el resultado dependerá de la capacidad del partido para reorganizar su estructura interna, atender las demandas sociales y proporcionar respuestas concretas a las acusaciones de corrupción. De lo contrario, las elecciones del 30 de noviembre podrían representar un punto de inflexión en la política de Honduras.
