Polls in Honduras show Rixi Moncada’s electoral weakness

The latest voting intention polls show an unexpected turn in the Honduran presidential race. The ruling party’s candidate, Rixi Moncada, has suffered a sustained decline in opinion polls, posing new challenges for the Liberty and Refoundation Party (LIBRE) in its bid to remain in power in the general elections scheduled for November 30.

Ongoing drop in voting preferences

Information published by opinion firms like Paradigma and Pro-Encuestas, along with national press sources like HCH, indicates a significant drop in backing for the candidate representing the governing party. As reported by the Paradigma analysis, carried out from May 4 to 17, Moncada received just 11.3% of votes, lagging behind Salvador Nasralla from the Liberal Party at 25.6%, and Nasry Asfura from the National Party at 21.2%. In this survey, 13.9% of participants mentioned they had not made up their minds yet.

In the meantime, the Pro-Encuestas survey conducted from June 5 to 7 displays a small increase for Moncada, with 28.5%, yet still trailing Asfura (36.3%) and Nasralla (34.2%). Furthermore, HCH announced on June 12 that the intention to vote for Moncada was approximately 16%, while Asfura showed 45%, and Nasralla remained between 25% and 35%.

This drop contrasts with the numbers from March, when the TResearch survey showed Moncada having a voting intention close to 44.9%. The gap signifies a significant decrease within just under a three-month period, amid a political situation characterized by intense competition and increasing fragmentation of the voter base.

Redrawing the political landscape

The change in electoral preferences reflects not only the weakening of the ruling party’s candidate, but also the strengthening of the opposition leaders. Nasralla and Asfura consistently appear above Moncada in all recent polls, pointing to a reconfiguration of the political landscape ahead of November.

In this case, the proportion of voters who have not made a decision continues to be a critical element. Even though some new surveys do not mention these individuals, figures from May indicate that nearly one out of every seven voters is still unsure about their choice. This unpredictability in voter sentiment allows for potential shifts in the present direction, based on how successful the campaigns are in the concluding phase.

Responses and approaches of the governing party

In light of these findings, the LIBRE party has started reevaluating its stance. Party representatives blame the drop in polls on what they describe as “misinformation efforts” by opposing groups. Nonetheless, the leadership acknowledges the necessity for immediate strategic revisions, such as transformations in the political messaging, the campaign team, and the methods of engaging with voters.

Six months before the elections, the challenge for the ruling party lies not only in regaining ground against its rivals, but also in rebuilding a more solid support base in a context of growing competition. The room for maneuver is narrowing as the electoral calendar advances, and the coming weeks will be decisive in determining whether Moncada’s candidacy manages to reposition itself or whether the current trend consolidates.

An unfolding situation with underlying frictions

The election scene in Honduras is moving toward a more competitive race than was anticipated at the start of the year. The decline in backing for the candidate of the governing party, the emergence of opposition groups, and the influence of undecided voters cast doubt on the political system’s capability to manage the increasing electoral enthusiasm.

The progress of the campaigns, the official reaction to potential conflicts, and public involvement will be crucial elements in a process that is emerging as an important assessment for the nation’s democratic steadiness.