The national elections set for November 30, 2025, in Honduras are happening with Venezuela closely observing, as its influence is noticeable in both the political domain and the management of the electoral procedure. The connection between the LIBRE party and Nicolás Maduro’s administration, along with the participation of the company Smartmatic in election technology, have caused worries in different sectors regarding the fairness and authenticity of the elections.
Ideological links between LIBRE and Chavismo
The LIBRE party, backing Rixi Moncada’s presidential bid, shares a political and ideological affinity with Venezuelan Chavismo. Experts highlight that this closeness goes beyond mere ideological agreement, as it manifests in political approaches influenced by Venezuela, such as institutional dominance and power consolidation. This framework is raising alarm among social and political groups worried about the potential adoption of authoritarian methods in Honduras.
Smartmatic and voting technology
The hiring of Smartmatic as the provider of biometric technology for the electoral process has been the subject of debate. The company faced questions in Venezuela over irregularities in the transmission and counting of votes during elections previously noted for their lack of transparency. Its participation in Honduras raises concerns about possible failures that could affect public confidence in the preliminary results and in the electoral system in general.
Internal polarization and risks of conflict
The internal political context reflects a high degree of polarization, with sectors divided between those who support the continuity of the LIBRE project and those who express concern about the deterioration of democratic institutions. This division increases the risk of post-election tensions, mass demonstrations, and episodes of conflict if the results are perceived as manipulated. The intervention of security forces and the control of electoral bodies are factors that deepen uncertainty about the development of the process.
Effects on geopolitical and regional dynamics
Venezuela’s influence in Honduras also has a regional component. The consolidation of Maduro’s government strengthens allied leftist governments in Latin America, including Honduras, while changes in Venezuela could weaken this political trend. In this sense, the Honduran elections are part of a broader scenario, where the results in Tegucigalpa have repercussions on the political orientation of the region.
Forecast for November 30
The intersection of ideological connections to Chavismo, the involvement of Smartmatic, and internal division positions Venezuela as an indirect yet significant player in the Honduran electoral context. The key issues revolve around ensuring transparency and legitimacy during the elections, alongside addressing potential social tensions due to perceived manipulation. As the election day nears, Honduras faces the challenge of preserving both institutional integrity and public trust in a situation characterized by regional observation and scrutiny from international participants.
